Looking at weekly chart it could be wave 2. Let's see.
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Nov 27 and 28
Market has confused today and yesterday. It should be going downward but the upward move suggests it could be a different count.
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Analysis: Develop confidence in AO accurately finding 3rd wave and consider all variations.
Because of high trend volatility of Nifty there are hundreds of wave counts going around. In order to clear the picture and test the LIN approach, I decided to test AO for counting wave. But how to verify if what AO says happens. So I took the historical data to do this analysis and here are learning from some of the charts I analyzed.
Verifying if AO gives 3rd wave and there is always a higher divergent wave 5.
conclusion: AO works best in Equities and US commodities charts.
- On the AO chart watch the right most highest peak [NG]
- 3rd peak typically comes in the center of the chart [NG]
- If peak is at one corner, it could be 5th of previous or 1st of next slot of bars [NG]
- A higher peak on opposite direction will only come once this trend is over [NG]
- IMP: TO CONFIRM THE 5th wave, always chech for divergence between prices and momentum ! [NG]
- Even after observing wave 3, do not trade wave 4 because it may be risky and dont know the length of it. Always trade along the trend.
- Always look at 1 previous 110 bar slot to verify your current chart understanding.
[from US Gold data]
- wave 4 AO high on the other side of wave 3 AO will typically not be higher than wave 3 AO.
- Another verification of our count is that after crossing over, the smaller peaks made as a part of wave 4, there is no divergence of momentum and price there.
- wave 4 AO peak also wont have typical twin peaks of impulsive waves. [some wave 3 also dont have it]
[from US silver data]
- Irrespective of direction of AO, only look for the biggest wave around.
- confirm your assessment by looking at previous 110 bar slot.
- wave 4 AO typically shows these 2 patterns:
a) Simply just crosses over and comes back to give wave 5
b) Makes a good high in opposite direction, crosses over to make a low plateau structure, crosses over again to make a small hill and then comes back to give wave 5. [may give a couple more crossovers before wave 5 comes]
[from DAX data]
- here wave 5 price just reached very close to wave 3 and didnt cross it.
- after wave 5, AO went in opposite direction to make a new high both in price and AO. so would this be the new wave 3 now. - confused?
[EUR/USD data]
- both sides AO almost equal but then the down wave was taller by 0.01 and hence considered wave 3
- perfect wave 5 within wave 3.
- simple wave 4 and and wave 5 done. [missing the correction wave though]
Verifying if AO gives 3rd wave and there is always a higher divergent wave 5.
conclusion: AO works best in Equities and US commodities charts.
- On the AO chart watch the right most highest peak [NG]
- 3rd peak typically comes in the center of the chart [NG]
- If peak is at one corner, it could be 5th of previous or 1st of next slot of bars [NG]
- A higher peak on opposite direction will only come once this trend is over [NG]
- IMP: TO CONFIRM THE 5th wave, always chech for divergence between prices and momentum ! [NG]
- Even after observing wave 3, do not trade wave 4 because it may be risky and dont know the length of it. Always trade along the trend.
- Always look at 1 previous 110 bar slot to verify your current chart understanding.
[from US Gold data]
- wave 4 AO high on the other side of wave 3 AO will typically not be higher than wave 3 AO.
- Another verification of our count is that after crossing over, the smaller peaks made as a part of wave 4, there is no divergence of momentum and price there.
- wave 4 AO peak also wont have typical twin peaks of impulsive waves. [some wave 3 also dont have it]
[from US silver data]
- Irrespective of direction of AO, only look for the biggest wave around.
- confirm your assessment by looking at previous 110 bar slot.
- wave 4 AO typically shows these 2 patterns:
a) Simply just crosses over and comes back to give wave 5
b) Makes a good high in opposite direction, crosses over to make a low plateau structure, crosses over again to make a small hill and then comes back to give wave 5. [may give a couple more crossovers before wave 5 comes]
[from DAX data]
- here wave 5 price just reached very close to wave 3 and didnt cross it.
- after wave 5, AO went in opposite direction to make a new high both in price and AO. so would this be the new wave 3 now. - confused?
[EUR/USD data]
- both sides AO almost equal but then the down wave was taller by 0.01 and hence considered wave 3
- perfect wave 5 within wave 3.
- simple wave 4 and and wave 5 done. [missing the correction wave though]
Nov 26th move
Today's downward trend confirmed we should be in 3 of wave 3 of wave 5 now.
Final confirmation would be if the 5983 i.e. previous low formed by wave 1 is broken in couple of days. If not then its a corrective wave.
wave 1 of wave 3 of wave 5 = 257 (6240 to 5983)
wave 2 of wave 3 of wave 5 = 158 (5983 to 6141) = 61.5% [Fib golden ratio].
By this count we should see the bottom somewhere near 5600 by december end. lets see.
Final confirmation would be if the 5983 i.e. previous low formed by wave 1 is broken in couple of days. If not then its a corrective wave.
wave 1 of wave 3 of wave 5 = 257 (6240 to 5983)
wave 2 of wave 3 of wave 5 = 158 (5983 to 6141) = 61.5% [Fib golden ratio].
By this count we should see the bottom somewhere near 5600 by december end. lets see.
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Nov 24 analysis
trying these strategies to trade:
1) alligator + fractals
2) AO + Saddle point
3) 5 magic bullets
Couple of days back all the 3 methodologies were suggesting an end of the trend.
Now strategy 1 suggests a downward trend.
Daily charts point to a 3 wave down going on for last 2 days
Weekly charts show this maybe a wave c down at the end of the trend or part of wave 4 larger degree.
Another strategy still to figure out is pivots and fibs retracements.
Tuesday, November 5, 2013
Nifty last and this week
Nifty met the target of 6330 last week and since then I am bearish on the index. I believe wave 5 of a bigger wave 3 has ended now and we should see some corrective wave 4 happening now.
This wave 4 should take us back in the range of 6180. I am yet to prove it with appropriate numbers but thats what my gut tells me.
Also, exploring another trader on ichart and amazed by the accuracy of the predictions. The primary settings used are Pivots and wave along with fibs.
So once, I prove that my model has gaps in it, I will work on understanding the true wave theory as set by Percher's video sessions.
This wave 4 should take us back in the range of 6180. I am yet to prove it with appropriate numbers but thats what my gut tells me.
Also, exploring another trader on ichart and amazed by the accuracy of the predictions. The primary settings used are Pivots and wave along with fibs.
So once, I prove that my model has gaps in it, I will work on understanding the true wave theory as set by Percher's video sessions.
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