29th Oct Nifty

So today the index shot up 120 points. Short positions were loss making. Today's market got me thinking that all this while I have been trying to predict the market.

Now i realize that nobody can predict the market. All we can do is prepared to take profit from which ever direction market decides to take. And a broader idea of direction of the market will come from the wave count.

- So if Nifty goes up tomorrow then we are still in wave 5. Hence maintain my previous target of 6280-6330 for the fifth wave. [I have a long position open]

- In case Nifty goes down tomorrow then this is wave b of the correction and wave c would have started. Stop loss for previous and entry for this trend should be 6180.


So learning for today:

1. Do not predict the market movement. Be prepared for both sides of movement.
2. Only consider a wave if it closes in the trend. For example, couple of days back Nifty scaled 6252 and then retreated from there to close below 6200. Looking at the graphs I inferred that this is wave 5 ending. However, now that i see it maybe just the wave b correction in the 4th wave.

28 oct nifty

Today's trade was a previous short position. The markets started falling.
On a fractal signal on 5 minute bar I placed another sell stop signal and it clicked but my stop was too tight and this position got squared off before the move could even start.

Tomorrow the market is expected to fall more. And I plan to enter with a second lot on a fractal signal.

24th and 25th Oct Nifty

Nifty is still not making a decisive move. It just going horizontal.
From experience it looks like it will intersect the alligator and then start another move up.

The reason for this belief is that if it were an opposite move, the prices should have fallen suddenly downwards.

Anyhow, still holding on to the short position.

Here is a nice explanation of Nifty movement based on wave count. Although it goes against my count of wave, nevertheless a good view:

http://www.wavetimes.com/trading-nifty-using-elliott-waves-by-ramki-wavetimes-com/

Trading strategies

Last week I tried trading with wave count and following the market signals.

I am thinking of shifting gears temporarily and trading just on the basis of fractals. Couple of points to be taken care of:

AO and AC down is downward movement. Close to zero is low activity. 

Track gator for knowing when mouth is closed or open and thereby take only relevant fractals. No matter how enticing early entry in opposite trend may seem. 

wave count Oct 22

Oct22 and 23rd Nifty:

Based on my last analysis, Nifty hasn't moved much when it should have. So I decided to check any one degree above and one degree below waves.

Weekly wave: no clear trend yet
Hourly wave: Confirms we are in wave 5 of daily wave 3. The corrective wave after 5 should take us to 6050 which was the range for wave 4 in hourly.

Overall 4th wave will start soon with a target of 5950.

Only doubt now remains is whether 5th wave in hourly will touch its peak of 6300 range before correcting or the correction as already begun as we saw it today.
Only point is favour of touching the peak 6300 is that today was a Divergent Bull bar. So hoping for a last push before correction. [will confirm this in 10 min chart]

My position: None. Got squared off today at 6185.

 Imp: Trust your believe system and trade what you believe in. Today i believed market is in downtrend but exited. Should have remained short.  Lets check how it turns out.

wave count Oct 21 Nifty

So today's market confirmed some of the analysis of Friday last week.

Almost certainly we are in wave 5 (of maybe wave 3 up). The target for this wave seems to be in the range of 6300.

 Here is my wave count based on daily chart: (data from icharts.in)
1st - 5701 to 5950 = 249
2nd - 5826             = 124 (50% of wave 1)
3rd - 6156              = 330 (132% of wave 1)
4th - 6032              = 124 (34% of wave 3)

Therefore, for 5th wave, expected length = 300 to 450, however it should be about 1st wave's length. So about 250. Hence, expected target for 5th wave = 6280 to 6330.
AO - 2nd red bar; AC - 4th red bar.
However, Gator's mouth is opening more. So couple of days before correction starts.
Need to verify the 5th wave ending by checking 10 min chart for 5th wave.

Maintain target for correction wave at 6050. 

19 Oct
Silver

Observing daily charts:
AO shows wave 3 ended with high of 58173. and now wave 4 is going. Looks like 5th wave of wave 4 is also getting over as of 15th oct. [Need to confirm that on daily chart - yes 5 of 4th finished]
AO made the first green bar on 18th
AC made the 2nd green bar
So both AO and AC are rising.
Alligator's mouth is almost closing but not yet happened.

A divergent bull bar on 15th which also forms lower fractal. The signal for upper fractal is on 8th oct at 50123. So waiting for a couple more bars on AO and hitting my up fractal entry point.

Verifying the wave count on daily:
After 15th Oct there is a cross over of alligator mouth. Not sure if this is abc wave inside 4 or wave 1 of
wave 5 has started.
Alligator's mouth is opening up. AO is red and AC is 2 bars green now.
Will wait for the daily fractal entry point to hit.

19 october13:

Nifty
studying the daily chart for 18th oct -
AC = 3rd red bars
AO = 1st red bar
Divergent bearish bar was made 2 days back
Elliott wave looks like we are in 5th wave of 3rd wave (daily).
5th wave has crossed 3rd wave's high and hence, anytime we should see a-b-c wave (dailies) start. The target for the correction is around 5800.

Checking hourly charts:
minimum condition for wave 4 met i.e. AO goes below the line.
Divergent bearish bar at the top.
first AC red bar has appeared
Position taken at 6200
waiting for wave 5 end and correction to start.
target for correction: 6050