Today's gap up and then down move proves that option 1 or 2 are in play here. So assessing today's move vide yesterday's analysis:
1) This could be the start of C wave correction. The correction will be choppy and we need to be very careful about the end of the correction because a strong up or down move may start with this correction.
today market came to 6161 i.e. very close to previous low of 6151. If this breached then we will start looking for an end to this correction close to 6050 i.e. another 100 points down expected.
2) downward wave 3 started. the huge spike in volume does suggest it could be a wave 3 down. however, then wave 2 was too small for that. If this is true then expected end of wave 3 =
wave 1*(1 to 1.6) = 329 to 526, therefore the target = 5940 to 5750. This is too steep. So looking somewhere around 6000. Below 6000, might be looking for these targets.
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
Wavecount Dec 18th
Today market rose about 75 points. 4 possibilities [sorted on the basis of likelihood]
1. wave b of the corrective wave.
Expected end (6480-6151 = 329*(50%-65%) = 165 to 214 retrace) - 6300 to 6350, so another 60 to 100 points rally expected.
2. wave 2 up of a downward primary move. same levels as above.
3. wave 5 continuing, (unlikely because too many days have passed for the same wave to be continuing) if breaks 6350 then might cross 6480 levels as well.
4. wave 3 starting: likely as that puts the target over 6600 for nifty. Important levels for Nifty future is 6350. If broken, the count will need to be reassessed.
Weekly charts showing this could be the end of a trend with wave 5 happening last week.
1. wave b of the corrective wave.
Expected end (6480-6151 = 329*(50%-65%) = 165 to 214 retrace) - 6300 to 6350, so another 60 to 100 points rally expected.
2. wave 2 up of a downward primary move. same levels as above.
3. wave 5 continuing, (unlikely because too many days have passed for the same wave to be continuing) if breaks 6350 then might cross 6480 levels as well.
4. wave 3 starting: likely as that puts the target over 6600 for nifty. Important levels for Nifty future is 6350. If broken, the count will need to be reassessed.
Weekly charts showing this could be the end of a trend with wave 5 happening last week.
Monday, December 16, 2013
Monday Dec 16
NIfty continues downward move. Doesnt look like a 2nd wave now. But it has also gone too low for the correction wave.
AO is still in red and hence, no reversal expected. AC is down for 3rd consecutive day now. There could be one last buy opportunity before the crossing the line. But now almost a week has gone since market sliding hence difficult that there will be an upside now.
AO is still in red and hence, no reversal expected. AC is down for 3rd consecutive day now. There could be one last buy opportunity before the crossing the line. But now almost a week has gone since market sliding hence difficult that there will be an upside now.
Friday, December 13, 2013
wave count 13 dec
At this point, Nifty has fallen for last 3 days.
On daily the count looks like:
wave 1: 5973 - 6123 | 150
wave 2: 6123 - 6030 | 93
wave 3: 6030 - 6229 | 199
wave 4: 6229 - 6150 | 79
wave 5: 6150 - 6415 | 265
and now we are in corrective wave a at 6230: so 185 retracement
or this could be wave 2 corrective wave going on now. To validate this Nifty should again cross 6415.
On daily the count looks like:
wave 1: 5973 - 6123 | 150
wave 2: 6123 - 6030 | 93
wave 3: 6030 - 6229 | 199
wave 4: 6229 - 6150 | 79
wave 5: 6150 - 6415 | 265
and now we are in corrective wave a at 6230: so 185 retracement
or this could be wave 2 corrective wave going on now. To validate this Nifty should again cross 6415.
Monday, December 9, 2013
Balance sheet Monthly
August 2013 = +20,000 Ending value 55,000
Septem 2013 = - 2,000 Ending value 61,500
Octobe 2013 = -20,000 Ending value 45,000
Novem 2013 = +10,000 Ending value 55,000
10 dec 2013 = -15,000 Ending value 40,000
Septem 2013 = - 2,000 Ending value 61,500
Octobe 2013 = -20,000 Ending value 45,000
Novem 2013 = +10,000 Ending value 55,000
10 dec 2013 = -15,000 Ending value 40,000
December 10th Analysis Nifty
Today Nifty is following the Profitunity trading technique quite exactly.
Yesterday it made a higher wave 5 on daily charts
Investigating within that higher wave 5 by looking at hourly charts, we see that it was wave 3.
Now waiting to cross over 0 for AO before seeing a 5th of 5th wave.
So another higher peak should come within two days with high crossing NS 6415
Yesterday it made a higher wave 5 on daily charts
Investigating within that higher wave 5 by looking at hourly charts, we see that it was wave 3.
Now waiting to cross over 0 for AO before seeing a 5th of 5th wave.
So another higher peak should come within two days with high crossing NS 6415
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Nov 27 and 28
Market has confused today and yesterday. It should be going downward but the upward move suggests it could be a different count.
Looking at weekly chart it could be wave 2. Let's see.
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Analysis: Develop confidence in AO accurately finding 3rd wave and consider all variations.
Because of high trend volatility of Nifty there are hundreds of wave counts going around. In order to clear the picture and test the LIN approach, I decided to test AO for counting wave. But how to verify if what AO says happens. So I took the historical data to do this analysis and here are learning from some of the charts I analyzed.
Verifying if AO gives 3rd wave and there is always a higher divergent wave 5.
conclusion: AO works best in Equities and US commodities charts.
- On the AO chart watch the right most highest peak [NG]
- 3rd peak typically comes in the center of the chart [NG]
- If peak is at one corner, it could be 5th of previous or 1st of next slot of bars [NG]
- A higher peak on opposite direction will only come once this trend is over [NG]
- IMP: TO CONFIRM THE 5th wave, always chech for divergence between prices and momentum ! [NG]
- Even after observing wave 3, do not trade wave 4 because it may be risky and dont know the length of it. Always trade along the trend.
- Always look at 1 previous 110 bar slot to verify your current chart understanding.
[from US Gold data]
- wave 4 AO high on the other side of wave 3 AO will typically not be higher than wave 3 AO.
- Another verification of our count is that after crossing over, the smaller peaks made as a part of wave 4, there is no divergence of momentum and price there.
- wave 4 AO peak also wont have typical twin peaks of impulsive waves. [some wave 3 also dont have it]
[from US silver data]
- Irrespective of direction of AO, only look for the biggest wave around.
- confirm your assessment by looking at previous 110 bar slot.
- wave 4 AO typically shows these 2 patterns:
a) Simply just crosses over and comes back to give wave 5
b) Makes a good high in opposite direction, crosses over to make a low plateau structure, crosses over again to make a small hill and then comes back to give wave 5. [may give a couple more crossovers before wave 5 comes]
[from DAX data]
- here wave 5 price just reached very close to wave 3 and didnt cross it.
- after wave 5, AO went in opposite direction to make a new high both in price and AO. so would this be the new wave 3 now. - confused?
[EUR/USD data]
- both sides AO almost equal but then the down wave was taller by 0.01 and hence considered wave 3
- perfect wave 5 within wave 3.
- simple wave 4 and and wave 5 done. [missing the correction wave though]
Verifying if AO gives 3rd wave and there is always a higher divergent wave 5.
conclusion: AO works best in Equities and US commodities charts.
- On the AO chart watch the right most highest peak [NG]
- 3rd peak typically comes in the center of the chart [NG]
- If peak is at one corner, it could be 5th of previous or 1st of next slot of bars [NG]
- A higher peak on opposite direction will only come once this trend is over [NG]
- IMP: TO CONFIRM THE 5th wave, always chech for divergence between prices and momentum ! [NG]
- Even after observing wave 3, do not trade wave 4 because it may be risky and dont know the length of it. Always trade along the trend.
- Always look at 1 previous 110 bar slot to verify your current chart understanding.
[from US Gold data]
- wave 4 AO high on the other side of wave 3 AO will typically not be higher than wave 3 AO.
- Another verification of our count is that after crossing over, the smaller peaks made as a part of wave 4, there is no divergence of momentum and price there.
- wave 4 AO peak also wont have typical twin peaks of impulsive waves. [some wave 3 also dont have it]
[from US silver data]
- Irrespective of direction of AO, only look for the biggest wave around.
- confirm your assessment by looking at previous 110 bar slot.
- wave 4 AO typically shows these 2 patterns:
a) Simply just crosses over and comes back to give wave 5
b) Makes a good high in opposite direction, crosses over to make a low plateau structure, crosses over again to make a small hill and then comes back to give wave 5. [may give a couple more crossovers before wave 5 comes]
[from DAX data]
- here wave 5 price just reached very close to wave 3 and didnt cross it.
- after wave 5, AO went in opposite direction to make a new high both in price and AO. so would this be the new wave 3 now. - confused?
[EUR/USD data]
- both sides AO almost equal but then the down wave was taller by 0.01 and hence considered wave 3
- perfect wave 5 within wave 3.
- simple wave 4 and and wave 5 done. [missing the correction wave though]
Nov 26th move
Today's downward trend confirmed we should be in 3 of wave 3 of wave 5 now.
Final confirmation would be if the 5983 i.e. previous low formed by wave 1 is broken in couple of days. If not then its a corrective wave.
wave 1 of wave 3 of wave 5 = 257 (6240 to 5983)
wave 2 of wave 3 of wave 5 = 158 (5983 to 6141) = 61.5% [Fib golden ratio].
By this count we should see the bottom somewhere near 5600 by december end. lets see.
Final confirmation would be if the 5983 i.e. previous low formed by wave 1 is broken in couple of days. If not then its a corrective wave.
wave 1 of wave 3 of wave 5 = 257 (6240 to 5983)
wave 2 of wave 3 of wave 5 = 158 (5983 to 6141) = 61.5% [Fib golden ratio].
By this count we should see the bottom somewhere near 5600 by december end. lets see.
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Nov 24 analysis
trying these strategies to trade:
1) alligator + fractals
2) AO + Saddle point
3) 5 magic bullets
Couple of days back all the 3 methodologies were suggesting an end of the trend.
Now strategy 1 suggests a downward trend.
Daily charts point to a 3 wave down going on for last 2 days
Weekly charts show this maybe a wave c down at the end of the trend or part of wave 4 larger degree.
Another strategy still to figure out is pivots and fibs retracements.
Tuesday, November 5, 2013
Nifty last and this week
Nifty met the target of 6330 last week and since then I am bearish on the index. I believe wave 5 of a bigger wave 3 has ended now and we should see some corrective wave 4 happening now.
This wave 4 should take us back in the range of 6180. I am yet to prove it with appropriate numbers but thats what my gut tells me.
Also, exploring another trader on ichart and amazed by the accuracy of the predictions. The primary settings used are Pivots and wave along with fibs.
So once, I prove that my model has gaps in it, I will work on understanding the true wave theory as set by Percher's video sessions.
This wave 4 should take us back in the range of 6180. I am yet to prove it with appropriate numbers but thats what my gut tells me.
Also, exploring another trader on ichart and amazed by the accuracy of the predictions. The primary settings used are Pivots and wave along with fibs.
So once, I prove that my model has gaps in it, I will work on understanding the true wave theory as set by Percher's video sessions.
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
29th Oct Nifty
So today the index shot up 120 points. Short positions were loss making. Today's market got me thinking that all this while I have been trying to predict the market.
Now i realize that nobody can predict the market. All we can do is prepared to take profit from which ever direction market decides to take. And a broader idea of direction of the market will come from the wave count.
- So if Nifty goes up tomorrow then we are still in wave 5. Hence maintain my previous target of 6280-6330 for the fifth wave. [I have a long position open]
- In case Nifty goes down tomorrow then this is wave b of the correction and wave c would have started. Stop loss for previous and entry for this trend should be 6180.
So learning for today:
1. Do not predict the market movement. Be prepared for both sides of movement.
2. Only consider a wave if it closes in the trend. For example, couple of days back Nifty scaled 6252 and then retreated from there to close below 6200. Looking at the graphs I inferred that this is wave 5 ending. However, now that i see it maybe just the wave b correction in the 4th wave.
Now i realize that nobody can predict the market. All we can do is prepared to take profit from which ever direction market decides to take. And a broader idea of direction of the market will come from the wave count.
- So if Nifty goes up tomorrow then we are still in wave 5. Hence maintain my previous target of 6280-6330 for the fifth wave. [I have a long position open]
- In case Nifty goes down tomorrow then this is wave b of the correction and wave c would have started. Stop loss for previous and entry for this trend should be 6180.
So learning for today:
1. Do not predict the market movement. Be prepared for both sides of movement.
2. Only consider a wave if it closes in the trend. For example, couple of days back Nifty scaled 6252 and then retreated from there to close below 6200. Looking at the graphs I inferred that this is wave 5 ending. However, now that i see it maybe just the wave b correction in the 4th wave.
Monday, October 28, 2013
28 oct nifty
Today's trade was a previous short position. The markets started falling.
On a fractal signal on 5 minute bar I placed another sell stop signal and it clicked but my stop was too tight and this position got squared off before the move could even start.
Tomorrow the market is expected to fall more. And I plan to enter with a second lot on a fractal signal.
On a fractal signal on 5 minute bar I placed another sell stop signal and it clicked but my stop was too tight and this position got squared off before the move could even start.
Tomorrow the market is expected to fall more. And I plan to enter with a second lot on a fractal signal.
24th and 25th Oct Nifty
Nifty is still not making a decisive move. It just going horizontal.
From experience it looks like it will intersect the alligator and then start another move up.
The reason for this belief is that if it were an opposite move, the prices should have fallen suddenly downwards.
Anyhow, still holding on to the short position.
Here is a nice explanation of Nifty movement based on wave count. Although it goes against my count of wave, nevertheless a good view:
http://www.wavetimes.com/trading-nifty-using-elliott-waves-by-ramki-wavetimes-com/
From experience it looks like it will intersect the alligator and then start another move up.
The reason for this belief is that if it were an opposite move, the prices should have fallen suddenly downwards.
Anyhow, still holding on to the short position.
Here is a nice explanation of Nifty movement based on wave count. Although it goes against my count of wave, nevertheless a good view:
http://www.wavetimes.com/trading-nifty-using-elliott-waves-by-ramki-wavetimes-com/
Friday, October 25, 2013
Trading strategies
Last week I tried trading with wave count and following the market signals.
I am thinking of shifting gears temporarily and trading just on the basis of fractals. Couple of points to be taken care of:
AO and AC down is downward movement. Close to zero is low activity.
Track gator for knowing when mouth is closed or open and thereby take only relevant fractals. No matter how enticing early entry in opposite trend may seem.
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
wave count Oct 22
Oct22 and 23rd Nifty:
Based on my last analysis, Nifty hasn't moved much when it should have. So I decided to check any one degree above and one degree below waves.
Weekly wave: no clear trend yet
Hourly wave: Confirms we are in wave 5 of daily wave 3. The corrective wave after 5 should take us to 6050 which was the range for wave 4 in hourly.
Overall 4th wave will start soon with a target of 5950.
Only doubt now remains is whether 5th wave in hourly will touch its peak of 6300 range before correcting or the correction as already begun as we saw it today.
Only point is favour of touching the peak 6300 is that today was a Divergent Bull bar. So hoping for a last push before correction. [will confirm this in 10 min chart]
My position: None. Got squared off today at 6185.
Imp: Trust your believe system and trade what you believe in. Today i believed market is in downtrend but exited. Should have remained short. Lets check how it turns out.
Based on my last analysis, Nifty hasn't moved much when it should have. So I decided to check any one degree above and one degree below waves.
Weekly wave: no clear trend yet
Hourly wave: Confirms we are in wave 5 of daily wave 3. The corrective wave after 5 should take us to 6050 which was the range for wave 4 in hourly.
Overall 4th wave will start soon with a target of 5950.
Only doubt now remains is whether 5th wave in hourly will touch its peak of 6300 range before correcting or the correction as already begun as we saw it today.
Only point is favour of touching the peak 6300 is that today was a Divergent Bull bar. So hoping for a last push before correction. [will confirm this in 10 min chart]
My position: None. Got squared off today at 6185.
Imp: Trust your believe system and trade what you believe in. Today i believed market is in downtrend but exited. Should have remained short. Lets check how it turns out.
Monday, October 21, 2013
wave count Oct 21 Nifty
So today's market confirmed some of the analysis of Friday last week.
Almost certainly we are in wave 5 (of maybe wave 3 up). The target for this wave seems to be in the range of 6300.
Here is my wave count based on daily chart: (data from icharts.in)
1st - 5701 to 5950 = 249
2nd - 5826 = 124 (50% of wave 1)
3rd - 6156 = 330 (132% of wave 1)
4th - 6032 = 124 (34% of wave 3)
Therefore, for 5th wave, expected length = 300 to 450, however it should be about 1st wave's length. So about 250. Hence, expected target for 5th wave = 6280 to 6330.
AO - 2nd red bar; AC - 4th red bar.
However, Gator's mouth is opening more. So couple of days before correction starts.
Need to verify the 5th wave ending by checking 10 min chart for 5th wave.
Maintain target for correction wave at 6050.
Almost certainly we are in wave 5 (of maybe wave 3 up). The target for this wave seems to be in the range of 6300.
Here is my wave count based on daily chart: (data from icharts.in)
1st - 5701 to 5950 = 249
2nd - 5826 = 124 (50% of wave 1)
3rd - 6156 = 330 (132% of wave 1)
4th - 6032 = 124 (34% of wave 3)
Therefore, for 5th wave, expected length = 300 to 450, however it should be about 1st wave's length. So about 250. Hence, expected target for 5th wave = 6280 to 6330.
AO - 2nd red bar; AC - 4th red bar.
However, Gator's mouth is opening more. So couple of days before correction starts.
Need to verify the 5th wave ending by checking 10 min chart for 5th wave.
Maintain target for correction wave at 6050.
Saturday, October 19, 2013
19 Oct
Silver
Observing daily charts:
AO shows wave 3 ended with high of 58173. and now wave 4 is going. Looks like 5th wave of wave 4 is also getting over as of 15th oct. [Need to confirm that on daily chart - yes 5 of 4th finished]
AO made the first green bar on 18th
AC made the 2nd green bar
So both AO and AC are rising.
Alligator's mouth is almost closing but not yet happened.
A divergent bull bar on 15th which also forms lower fractal. The signal for upper fractal is on 8th oct at 50123. So waiting for a couple more bars on AO and hitting my up fractal entry point.
Verifying the wave count on daily:
After 15th Oct there is a cross over of alligator mouth. Not sure if this is abc wave inside 4 or wave 1 of
wave 5 has started.
Alligator's mouth is opening up. AO is red and AC is 2 bars green now.
Will wait for the daily fractal entry point to hit.
Silver
Observing daily charts:
AO shows wave 3 ended with high of 58173. and now wave 4 is going. Looks like 5th wave of wave 4 is also getting over as of 15th oct. [Need to confirm that on daily chart - yes 5 of 4th finished]
AO made the first green bar on 18th
AC made the 2nd green bar
So both AO and AC are rising.
Alligator's mouth is almost closing but not yet happened.
A divergent bull bar on 15th which also forms lower fractal. The signal for upper fractal is on 8th oct at 50123. So waiting for a couple more bars on AO and hitting my up fractal entry point.
Verifying the wave count on daily:
After 15th Oct there is a cross over of alligator mouth. Not sure if this is abc wave inside 4 or wave 1 of
wave 5 has started.
Alligator's mouth is opening up. AO is red and AC is 2 bars green now.
Will wait for the daily fractal entry point to hit.
19 october13:
Nifty
studying the daily chart for 18th oct -
AC = 3rd red bars
AO = 1st red bar
Divergent bearish bar was made 2 days back
Elliott wave looks like we are in 5th wave of 3rd wave (daily).
5th wave has crossed 3rd wave's high and hence, anytime we should see a-b-c wave (dailies) start. The target for the correction is around 5800.
Checking hourly charts:
minimum condition for wave 4 met i.e. AO goes below the line.
Divergent bearish bar at the top.
first AC red bar has appeared
Position taken at 6200
waiting for wave 5 end and correction to start.
target for correction: 6050
Nifty
studying the daily chart for 18th oct -
AC = 3rd red bars
AO = 1st red bar
Divergent bearish bar was made 2 days back
Elliott wave looks like we are in 5th wave of 3rd wave (daily).
5th wave has crossed 3rd wave's high and hence, anytime we should see a-b-c wave (dailies) start. The target for the correction is around 5800.
Checking hourly charts:
minimum condition for wave 4 met i.e. AO goes below the line.
Divergent bearish bar at the top.
first AC red bar has appeared
Position taken at 6200
waiting for wave 5 end and correction to start.
target for correction: 6050
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